Akademik Veri Yönetim Sistemi
Workshop on Turkish Economy, Ankara, Türkiye, 5 - 07 Ekim 2023, ss.21
One
out of every four employees in Turkey has been working in their current job for
less than a year. Similarly, one in every four workers has separated from their
job in the last year. These rates rise to one in every three among wage
earners. While many developed countries are concerned about a decrease in labor
flows and labor market stagnation (e.g., Causa et al., 2021), the Turkish labor
market appears to be experiencing problems caused by an increasing worker
turnover rate in the opposite direction.
In
this study, we investigate the factors that contributed to the increase in
worker flows, as well as the impact of these factors on wages. We first attempt
to describe the underlying patterns and trends of worker turnover. Then, we
examine the effect on wages by modifying the job tenure variable and taking
into account differences between new hires based on their status over the past
year. Our primary data source is household labor force surveys conducted
between 2005 and 2019. To more accurately measure job exits and inflows, we
will then estimate a similar model using panel data from the Income and Living
Conditions surveys.
Worker
turnover may be an indicator of a process that promotes creative destruction
and growth while also increasing productivity and, thus, worker welfare through
job transitions. However, our descriptive analyses show that workers with low
education/skills have experienced the greatest increase in turnover. Furthermore,
while the increase for low education/skilled workers affects all age groups,
only young people account for the majority of the increase among
educated/skilled workers. Additionally, the rise in temporary jobs and the
number of people who frequently change jobs were the primary causes of the
increase. The rise in turnover suggests that labor market stratification has
deepened, and a group of worker appears to be trapped in the temporary/bad
job/unemployment cycle. Our findings indicate that job changes result in lower
wages than ongoing contracts. Using different sub-samples, we find that the
negative effect is greater for women and those with a higher level of
education. Our results suggest that switching jobs may be more costly when the
return on experience is high.