Public debt in Turkey: evaluation and perspectives

Gurbuz Y., Jobert T., Tuncer R.

APPLIED ECONOMICS, cilt.39, sa.3, ss.343-359, 2007 (SSCI) identifier identifier

  • Yayın Türü: Makale / Tam Makale
  • Cilt numarası: 39 Sayı: 3
  • Basım Tarihi: 2007
  • Doi Numarası: 10.1080/00036840500438889
  • Dergi Adı: APPLIED ECONOMICS
  • Derginin Tarandığı İndeksler: Social Sciences Citation Index (SSCI), Scopus
  • Sayfa Sayıları: ss.343-359
  • Galatasaray Üniversitesi Adresli: Evet

Özet

The aim of this study is to analyse past and future sustainability of total public debt in Turkey. The analysis is based on econometric studies and simulations. The data are taken quarterly in order to take into account intra annual effects important in Turkey, given the strong volatility of the economy. The period covered is 1988 to 2002. The econometric analysis rejects the hypothesis of the sustainability of Turkish public debt in the last 15 years. The simulations show that to reach an acceptable level of debt, Turkey has to solve its problem of chronic inflation, stabilize its economy and adopt either a policy freezing public spending or a very active fiscal policy.