Fuzzy Multiattribute Evaluation of R&D Projects Using a Real Options Valuation Model


TOLGA A. Ç. , Kahraman C.

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS, vol.23, no.11, pp.1153-1176, 2008 (Journal Indexed in SCI) identifier identifier

  • Publication Type: Article / Article
  • Volume: 23 Issue: 11
  • Publication Date: 2008
  • Doi Number: 10.1002/int.20312
  • Title of Journal : INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS
  • Page Numbers: pp.1153-1176

Abstract

R&D project selection decision is very important in two ways. First, in many organizations, R&D budget represents huge investment. Project selection decisions could be thought with the strategic objectives and plans of the firm. Second, R&D projects' organizational returns are multidimensional in nature and risky in terms of projected outcome. Real options approach helps to calculate this risky side of the selection process. This paper considers that multidimensional side of the R&D project selection process. Another consideration is the vagueness in the evaluation process. The fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, which takes monetary (fuzzy real option value) and nonmonetary (capability, success probability, trends, etc.) criteria into account, is used to make this selection among alternative R&D projects. A real case study is given to illustrate the application of the proposed approach. (C) 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.